International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Business

IMF nudges up 2026 growth forecast but warns resilience is nearing its limits

The fund sees 3.1 per cent global growth this year, helped by AI investment, with inflation at 4.7 per cent.

International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, D.C.

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The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent from 3.0 per cent in July, and kept 2027 at 3.4 per cent, CNBC reports from the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.

The fund said AI-related investment helped offset higher energy costs from the Middle East war. It expects inflation of 4.7 per cent this year, easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027, and now assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027.

The IMF warned that if AI productivity gains fail to appear, U.S. stocks could fall 20 per cent and global output could end up 1.1 per cent below its baseline by 2028.

More coverage: Business news · latest headlines.

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